The Week in Jobs: Bill Gates Sounds the Alarm on AI & Real Unemployment Hits 25%

About this episode

Bill Gates published a lengthy warning about AI's threat to jobs this week, and Pete and Peter aren't convinced there's anything new in it. He predicts sales, customer support, software engineering, paralegal work, loan assessment, and data analysis are all at risk, and argues government policy needs to keep job creation in line with job losses. Pete and Peter push back hardest on sales, arguing it's one of the most human, relationship-driven jobs that exists, and question whether a call for more government policy from a former Microsoft CEO is entirely disinterested.

They also revisit MIT economist Daron Acemoglu's point on the tax code: hiring a robot costs a business roughly a 5% effective tax rate, versus more than 30% for hiring a human employee. Pete and Peter agree the fix isn't taxing automation more; it's taxing human employment less.

The bigger story of the week: official unemployment sits at 4.1%, but the Ludwig Institute's "true unemployment rate," which counts anyone without a job, anyone who wants full-time work but can't get it, and anyone earning $26,000 a year or less, comes in at 24.9%. Pete and Peter argue that number explains the gap between a healthy-looking headline rate and how bad the job market actually feels to a lot of people.

They also cover a new report that the government plans to start buying jobs data from AI companies since its own survey response rates have collapsed, the BLS's list of the fastest-growing jobs over the next decade (healthcare makes up 37% of it), and a study of 20 million LinkedIn profiles showing how often people go back and edit old job descriptions, including adding AI-related terms at six times the rate of anything else.

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